Hope everyone had a great weekend!
Thanks to everyone who joined and participated in the conversation yesterday! If you missed it, check out the recording here.
For quick recap, below is an NLP summary of the conversation as well as an outline of some of the major topics we covered.
The speakers discuss the recent economic conditions and how they believe the Federal Reserve will respond to them. They believe that the Fed is focused on inflation and will not pivot away from that until inflation begins to subside. They also believe that the market has priced in any actions the Fed is likely to take in the near future. Finally, they advise people to be prepared for a growth slowdown.
The conversation discusses the potential market impacts of the upcoming proof-of-stake switch on the Ethereum network. It is noted that the switch will reduce the issuance of Ethereum by 90% and reduce energy usage by 99%. The conversation also touches on the potential weaknesses of proof-of-stake systems, such as the fact that they tend to be closed systems with higher wealth concentration.
The overall discussion centered around the latest Curation and our updated predictions:
The Bear Market — how we got here, where we are, and where we are going (Phase 3: Growth Slowdown)
Phase 1 was the Liquidity Peak, Phase 2 was the Duration/Inflation Shock (Multiple Compression), and we are entering Phase 3: Growth Slowdown (Negative Earnings Revisions)
The Progression of Inflation — what’s next?
Inflation and rates are in the process of peaking (y/y rate of change), but inflation remains sticky (and CPI is a lagging indicator). The inflation issue + USD System Preservation/Treasury Solvency focus likely keeps the Fed’s hands tied for now
Major Trends over the Next Decade — from Deglobalization, to the Energy Transition, to the Shift of Power toward Labor over Capital
Supply Chain Regionalization and the Energy Transition are geopolitical imperatives that have been accelerated by COVID and now Russia/Ukraine. Semiconductors are the new oil and a critical area of focus
How to Capitalize on These Trends — from Crypto to Commodities to Equities
What asset types work well in inflationary environments — i.e. likely the next decade, driven by Fiscal
Started a deep dive discussion on the upcoming ETH merge and the impact on both the supply/demand side
This is the craziest macro environment in 40+ years as we are nearing the end of both the short term and long term debt cycle — the 4th Turning is here. Check out our Thoughts & Predictions (sequenced & linked below) — latest at the bottom of this post.
What you do with your capital over the coming 6-12 months will determine your financial position over the next decade…
CrowdCent Thoughts & Predictions
Check out below for our thoughts on the next decade:
Join the Community:
Active discussion - chat
CrowdCent on Twitter - link
CrowdCent Vision - here
CrowdCent ML Model - analyzer
CrowdCent Curation - archive
Have a great week!
Jason, Ryan, & Carlo