Our ensemble model gives your write-up a 52% chance of outperforming the S&P500 over the next 12 months. Over the last month, the average write-up we've evaluated has received a probability of 40%. Compared to all other evaluated write-ups over the last month, your write-up is in the 95th percentile.
We can open the black-box and gain some insight into how the model came to that conclusion. The decision plot shows the path of features (explanatory variables) and their effects adding up to the model’s final probability output. These are the 20 features (out of many more) that had the largest effect on the model’s output for your write-up:
*NLP features are various components derived from the text of your write-up. We are not yet disclosing the details behind the components.
The force plot shows the same information, but horizontally and stacked. Red features contributed positively to the model’s estimate and blue features contributed negatively to the model’s estimate: