CrowdCent Curation - No. 26

C CrowdCent · Posted 07/28/2022

Post Quality

Finance blockchain technology

CrowdCent Curation - No. 26

C CrowdCent · Posted 07/28/2022

Post Quality

Finance blockchain technology

Happy New Year! Hope everyone enjoyed the holidays. A lot happened in 2020, and we expect change to accelerate further in 2021 - most notably in the broader blockchain arena. If you haven’t started learning about blockchain and/or “crypto-assets,” there is no better time than now - this is a once-in-a-generation opportunity, and we are here to help.

As part of your resolutions, get more involved: feel free to reach out, share Curation with a friend, and join the community… the future is here.

In addition to the great content below, also check out updated tracking and comments for CC Thoughts & Predictions (original from 6/7) at the bottom of the post!

“It’s not what you look at that matters, it’s what you see.” Henry David Thoreau

Translation: Many people look at the same things (numbers, pictures, etc.) but interpret them differently. Your knowledge and experiences shape your perception of the world. Ideally, use clean raw data / first principles as inputs into your “process.”


  • Acclaimed Investment Strategist Lyn Alden: Investment Outlook for Family Offices [Audio]

    • Recap: Lyn delves into the long-term debt cycle, the medium-term currency cycle, and where we are in both. With the macro picture set, she offers insights into asset allocations and top investment recommendations for the decade ahead, such as: Bitcoin, emerging markets, and uranium.

    • CommentOne of the best interviews to recap 2020 and lay out a clear vision of the most likely path ahead in 2021 and beyond.


  • What Is Ethereum? - An Investigation [Video]

    • Recap: 90-minute documentary that dives into the history of Ethereum with the main founder of the protocol (Vitalik) - why it was created, how it was created, and where it's going...

    • Comment: A bit long, but a must watch - particularly if you are new to crypto and want to learn more about the founding of the protocol straight from the 'source.'


  • 2021 Predictions & Person of the Year [Article]

    • Recap: Scott lays out his top 2021 predictions - from RH and SONO stocks doubling, to ABNB up ~35% and Bitcoin hitting $50K... among others.

    • Comment: We agree with some (Bitcoin, ABNB), and disagree with others. The more important point is - these predictions need to be trackedPredictions with no tracking or skin in the game are worthless... 

      • Speaking of, check out how CC's ~mid 2020 predictions are doing so far (below). We'll have more to add to the list soon, and a 'prettier' tracking mechanism in due course.

CrowdCent Thoughts & Predictions

  • See below for a tracking update from CC’s predictions on 6/7/2020 - original here

    • We are near the end of a ~40 year US Treasury bull market: 16% 10yr UST rate in 1980 to ~0.50% today. Wouldn’t be surprised to see negative rates before inflation takes hold. Not bearish, just not much to play for.

      • Tracker: USGG10YR Index (US 10-year Government Yield)

      • Simplified Bet: US interest rates (10yr+) are going higher over the coming years

      • Performance: Up 2.02%

      • Comments: After dropping from ~2.00% to 50bps in early March, US rates (using 10yr, in this case) have gone from ~50bps in July/August to ~90bps today - generally in a tight range. We expect rates to start to move higher into 2021, before the Fed likely begins yield curve control (see prediction below) to cap the rise. We continue to hold this view, and expect reflation in 1H21 and higher rates over a longer (2 year+) time horizon.

    • Related to the above, we are in the 8th or 9th inning of a ~40 year private equity boom - primarily trading assets back & forth and benefiting from lower rates, not creating value

      • Tracker: Working on tracker; potentially a basket of private equity company stocks as % of the market (PSP US Equity / SPY US Equity)

      • Simplified Bet: Private equity growth, as an asset class, will start to slow down as interest rates hit the lower bound

      • Performance: 3.39% of SPY to 3.61% of SPY (negative performance as weighting has increased)

      • Comments: PSP is up ~24.58% since 6/7, while SPY is up 17.08%, outperforming by ~7.51%. The “free money” tide has lifted all boats over this time frame, and the steepening of the yield curve has benefitted financial (banks, PE, etc.) stocks. We continue to hold this view over a multi-year time horizon, but are still searching for a better tracker (i.e. PE performance relative to other asset classes). 

    • As the yield curve in the US continues to compress, expect to see a blow off top in growth assets in the near term (not our characterization, but referring to the assets with significant value in the terminal value)

      • Tracker: QQQ US Equity (Nasdaq 100 ETF)

      • Simplified Bet: Growth stocks will rise near term

      • Performance: Up 30.89%

      • Comments: This largely played out as expected, with a blow-off type top in late August, followed by a grind into year end (but underperforming more cyclical / reflationary sectors). Since the surge in late August, leadership has shifted away from software (high terminal value stocks) toward semiconductors (more cyclical stocks) within the tech space. We expect the cyclical/reflationary tilt to continue for the 1H21; QQQ likely continues to appreciate but at a slower rate vs. industrials, materials, etc.

    • After decades of no inflation, we will start to see real world inflation (not just financial asset inflation, which central banks have driven for 20+ years) in 2021+ driven by localization + government printing + commodities

      • Tracker: USGGBE05 Index (US 5-year inflation expectations)

      • Simplified Bet: Real world inflation is going to go up over the coming years

      • Performance: Up 102.65%

      • Comments: Breakeven rates (5yr) have gone from 97bps (6/7) to 1.97% today - more than doubling. We see real world inflation happening all around - from grocery prices, to lumber, to housing, to used cars. Anything with limited supply that has been in demand by consumers/businesses over the past several months. Expect this to get ‘worse’ (higher inflation) into 1H21, as more capital (trillions of printed fiat by the government) chases fewer goods.

    • The Federal Reserve likely then moves to yield curve control 

      • Tracker: Binary qualitative bet (either happens or doesn’t)

      • Simplified Bet: Expect the Fed to lock short term rates (2yr and less) to 0 or lower, and medium term rates (5yr+) to specific pegs

      • Performance: N/A

      • Comments: Too early for this explicitly, but we certainly see it in things like the 30-year fixed rate mortgage which has continued to trend lower (3.2% in August to 2.87% today) despite a rise in long term (10/30yr) interest rates. The Fed is clearly doing something (operation twist-like) in the background; there is a chance they become more explicit with this manipulation by mid 2021 if inflation picks up further.

    • The eventual steepening of the curve drives a reversal in the traditionally labeled value vs. growth buckets

      • Tracker: BNKKRYMH Index (10year UST - 3mo bill) and RU1VGT Index (Russell 1000 Value/Growth)

      • Simplified Bet: Yield curve steepening benefits stocks with less value in the terminal value, and more value in the visible (nearer term) cash flow stream

      • Performance: Yield curve has steepened by 7.63bps; Russell value has underperformed Russell growth by 11.90%.

      • Comments: The yield curve has gone from significantly negative (negative 40bps+ in September 2019) to now reasonably positive/steep (85.57bps today). Despite that, the benchmark (Value vs. Growth) index we are using has underperformed (value < growth). With traditional ‘value’ type sectors (financials, industrials, materials, etc.) significantly outperforming growth since early September, this does not make a ton of sense intuitively. And this brings us back to our broader problem with the “value factor” being misconstrued with “value investing.” We continue to hold the reflationary view (yield curve steepening), but the quant ‘value factor’ remains unappealing - we will be looking for a more appropriate benchmark.

    • 2021+ will see a 5+ year bull market in emerging markets, particularly SE Asia (India, Indonesia, Vietnam, etc.). Driven by weaker USD, positive demographics, and supply chain localization

      • Tracker: EEM US Equity (Emerging Markets ETF), ASEA US Equity or FSEAX US Equity (Southeast Asia ETFs)

      • Simplified Bet: Emerging markets, particularly SE Asia, should provide outsized returns over the coming years

      • Performance: EEM (up 26.27%), ASEA (up 6.95%), FSEAX (up 35.91%)

      • Comments: We believe the RoW (notably emerging markets) outperformance of US equities has just begun, and will be a major theme over the next decade. EEM and FSEAX performance aligns, and appear to be better proxies for this expression over ASEA.

    • Expect to see general de-globalization - for example, localization of critical/sensitive supply chains (Vietnam/SE Asia big beneficiaries), along with an acceleration in industrial automation + robotics

      • Tracker: (Update) - ARKQ US Equity (Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF)

      • Simplified Bet: Expect supply chain localization and rising automation

      • Performance: Up 62.91%

      • Comments: We are using ARKQ as a proxy for this trend, though really this should mainly be a theme in the back of your mind when thinking about broader investments.

    • In the next 5 years, we will see the USD replaced by something else as the world reserve currency (best guess: digital basket). Likely after a world war of sorts; Cold War 2.0 (over Technology, 5G, Semiconductors, etc.) - wouldn't be surprised to see multiple competing world reserve currencies

      • Tracker: Short UUP US Equity (US Dollar - bullish) or Long UDN US Equity (US Dollar - bearish)... and then binary qualitative bet on digital currency basket

      • Simplified Bet: the US dollar will lose its world reserve currency status in the coming years

      • Performance: UUP (down 8.13%; positive performance for short); UDN (up 7.08%; positive performance for long)

      • Comments: We believe the US dollar bear market has just begun, and so far both trackers confirm this trend. The supply of USD is growing dramatically (printing trillions of dollars).

    • Bitcoin and Ethereum double over the next 2 years

      • Tracker: XBTUSD Curncy (Bitcoin) and XETUSD Curncy (Ethereum)

      • Simplified Bet: Positive on digital currencies / blockchain over the coming years

      • Performance: XBTUSD (up 330.81% or 4.3x), XETUSD (up 269.88%, or 3.7x)

      • Comments: Performance has exceeded original expectations, but we continue to hold the same positive view. See posts here: ETHBTC

    • The rise in populism has been brewing for years, partially due to the structure of the financial system (useful and timely article) - expect this leads to an acceleration of the decentralization of authority … Neil Howe’s 4th Turning prediction is amazingly accurate thus far

      • Tracker: Qualitative at this point; working on trackable index

      • Simplified Bet: Decentralized finance is at a positive inflection point

      • Performance: N/A

      • Comments: This appears to be happening with the rise of DeFi as one outcropping. BLM protests, stimulus protests (e.g. vandalizing senators homes), among other things all point to this tracking - very typical of fourth turning.

  • Site Updates

    • Site continues to expand, check out new crypto-asset posts here: ETHBTCNMR

    • Any suggestions for CC Curation improvement, website, etc. - send an email to

Look forward to more updates soon - the future is here...


Jason & Ryan

Website: CrowdCent

Twitter: @CrowdCent

Telegram: Link

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