Happy Father’s Day to all the dads out there. Enjoy the weekend and the content below!
*“Show me the incentive and I'll show you the outcome” *- Charlie Munger
Translation: Incentives drive outcomes -- always understand how people, corporations, etc. are incentivized before making any decisions. Human behavior is ‘consistent’ over time when you understand what the underlying drivers are
Recap: We’ve gone through Phase 1 (liquidation; sell all assets at any cost), we’re in Phase 2 (recovery; equity markets rallying, extrapolating near term data points perpetually into future), and we likely enter Phase 3 sometime this fall (August+). The exact path forward is uncertain, but we should all be prepared for the potential outcomes so we make the right allocation decisions at the right time.
Comment: The risk we still have ahead is an insolvency crisis – hopefully that is not the case, but it’s something to monitor, particularly as the* market implied probability of any issues continues to drop off*… right at the same time that extended unemployment benefits roll off, forbearance expires, COVID cases pick back up. Net net, buying the re-opening rumor has certainly worked well – the question to ask from here is, will the news disappoint? What are the risks that were front and center 3 months ago, but now have been completely forgotten about (e.g. CLO system)?
Recap: Digital content / creators have exploded, online communities have grown - crypto could be the key mechanism to drive engagement, monetization, and innovation
Comment: The Internet was* built without payments* (no direct way to monetize), and that's why we're stuck with this mess of advertising + data tracking + 3P cookies. There's an opportunity to correct for that going forward, and blockchain can help - CrowdCent will integrate / reward users (post an idea, receive tokens, etc.) in the future
Recap: Useful essay that breaks down the US advertising market over the past 75 years - shifting from print (newspapers) to the Internet. Several useful charts/graphs highlighting the Internet 'eating' TV, radio, newspapers, magazines budgets
Comment: Goes well with the above article/audio (Internet built without payments backbone), highlighting how big of a business online advertising has become - despite the misaligned incentives
CrowdCent *Thoughts & Predictions*
Revamped site, along with a new section + tracker coming in early July