Posted 05/31/2020

CrowdCent Curation - No. 3

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Quality

Finance blockchain technology

Hope everyone is safe and healthy. We’ve added a few new elements - check it all out below. Feel free to send feedback on what you’d like to see (or see more of)!

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*“History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes” *- Mark Twain

Translation: Every cycle, event, day, etc. is distinct and different from the past; however, there is a lot to be learned from studying historical events to put things into context and build upon past successes and failures

CrowdCent *Thoughts & Predictions*

  • A new section highlighting our thoughts & predictions for the future - not to pontificate, but to start a discussion with the community on the future, how to position, and why

  • We are near the end of a ~40 year US Treasury bull market: 16% 10yr UST rate in 1980 to ~0.50% today. Wouldn’t be surprised to see negative rates before inflation takes hold. Not bearish, just not much to play for

  • Related to the above, we are in the 8th or 9th inning of a ~40 year private equity boom - primarily trading assets back & forth and benefiting from lower rates, not creating value

  • As the yield curve in the US continues to compress, expect to see a blow off top in growth assets in the near term (not our characterization, but referring to the assets with significant value in the terminal value)

  • After decades of no inflation, *we will start to see real world inflation *(not just financial asset inflation, which central banks have driven for 20+ years) in 2021+ driven by localization + government printing + commodities

  • The Federal Reserve likely then moves to *yield curve control *

  • The eventual steepening of the curve drives a reversal in the traditionally labeled value vs. growth buckets

  • 2021+ will see a 5+ year bull market in emerging markets, particularly SE Asia (India, Indonesia, Vietnam, etc.). Driven by weaker USD, positive demographics, and supply chain localization

  • Expect to see general de-globalization - for example, localization of critical/sensitive supply chains (Vietnam/SE Asia big beneficiaries), along with an acceleration in industrial automation + robotics

  • In the next 5 years, we will see the USD replaced by something else as the world reserve currency (best guess: digital basket). Likely after a world war of sorts; Cold War 2.0 (over Technology, 5G, Semiconductors, etc.) - wouldn't be surprised to see multiple competing world reserve currencies

  • Bitcoin and Ethereum double over the next 2 years

  • The rise in populism has been brewing for years, partially due to the structure of the financial system (useful and timely article) - expect this leads to an acceleration of the decentralization of authority *… *Neil Howe’s 4th Turning prediction is amazingly accurate thus far

  • Question to you: The next 10 years will certainly look different from the past 10 years, and there is A LOT of money to be made in positioning for the future. *How do you position and profit off of these trends (and others)? Post it in the thread and/or Telegram to discuss with the group:*

    Thread

    Telegram

    Finance

  • Princes of the Yen [Video]

    • Recap: Based on a book, this is a film/documentary about the power of central banks and the transformation of the economy. Highlights the agenda of powerful interest groups, and how citizens were kept entirely in the dark

    • Comment: Sound familiar? Given everything going on in the US (Fed & Treasury merging, endless programs, QE, MMT, etc.), this is a worthwhile watch to put things into historical perspective and frame the highest probability paths going forward...

    Blockchain

  • Spencer Dinwiddie of the Brooklyn Nets [Audio/Video]

    • Recap: Conversation with Spencer Dinwiddie (Brooklyn Nets PG) on the state of the NBA, and the latest on his tokenized bond offering

    • Comment: Spencer is a forward-thinking athlete/businessman. We expect the trend of tokenizing specific revenue streams (e.g. an athlete's contract) to allow for individual investment (and inherently increased engagement) has only just begun

    Technology

  • OpenAI’s new text generator writes sad poems and corrects lousy grammar [Article]

    • Recap: OpenAI just launched an amazingly large and powerful language model - *at or near human level capabilities on many tasks *

    • Comment: GPT-3 is the older brother of GPT-2, which is what we use in our machine generated idea forum

    Enjoy the weekend.

    Best,

    Jason & Ryan

    Website: CrowdCent

    Twitter: @CrowdCent

    Telegram: Link